Point of viewPower markets & data

India's power trading desk now lives in fifteen-minute blocks. Its data has to keep up

Short-term power trading is growing, the Real-Time Market is its fastest-growing segment, and market coupling, derivatives and deviation-settlement reform are changing the rules. Desks that win will be the ones whose forecasts, positions and settlements are trusted by gate closure.

7 min read By · Point of view
302 BU
short-term power transacted in FY2025-26, 17.7% of the 1,707 BU total — market data, not DaasLabs results1

Key takeaways

  • The short-term market reached 302.08 BU in FY2025-26; IEX handled 141.14 BU on exchanges, PXIL 18.35 BU and HPX 9.06 BU (market data).
  • The Real-Time Market, with gate closure one hour ahead, grew fastest; on 25 May 2025 RTM prices fell close to zero in the solar hours (market data).
  • Market coupling, monthly electricity derivatives, VPPA guidelines and deviation-settlement reform all raise the bar for forecasting, positions and settlement.
  • Agents can forecast, draft bids, watch DSM exposure and reconcile settlements — a trader still submits every bid.

A power trading desk in India now makes hundreds of decisions a day: buy or sell in the Day-Ahead Market, top up in the Real-Time Market an hour before delivery, manage green obligations, hedge, and keep the schedule close enough to actuals to avoid deviation charges. Each decision depends on data that has to be right before a gate closes.

What the market looks like

Exhibit 1

India's power market in FY2025-26

Market data, not DaasLabs results

MeasureVolume
Total electricity transacted1,707 BU
Short-term market302.08 BU (17.7%)
Exchanges: IEX / PXIL / HPX141.14 / 18.35 / 9.06 BU
Bilateral96.04 BU
Deviation settlement37.49 BU

Note: Source: Indian Infrastructure, July 2026.

Source: Indian Infrastructure, “Trading trends: shift to market-based solutions” (2026)

The year before, short-term transactions reached 238.35 BU, up 9.22%, and REC trading rose to 30.42 million certificates from 11.6 million (Power Line). The direction is clear: more power, and more of it priced in markets.

The rules are moving

  • July 2025: CERC ordered phased market coupling, starting with the DAM; monthly baseload derivatives launched on MCX and NSE after SEBI approval.
  • December 2025: guidelines for virtual power purchase agreements.
  • April 2026: a draft amendment proposes Grid Controller of India as Market Coupling Operator, for one uniform clearing price.
  • May 2026: deviation settlement moves to daily weighted-average pricing.

Where data and agents help the desk

Exhibit 1

A supervised trading-desk squad

Agent designs from our AI & Agentic Engineering practice

AgentWhat it doesWho decides
Price & Load ForecasterDAM / RTM price and load forecasts by blockHead of trading analytics
Bid Preparation AgentDrafts bids and balances the portfolioA trader submits every bid
DSM & Imbalance WatchFlags blocks heading for deviation chargesScheduling desk
Settlement ReconcilerMatches settlements, explains breaksAccounts officer, beyond tolerance

Note: Designs, not results.

Where to start

Start with one portfolio: publish load, price and RE forecasts as data products with a freshness SLA tied to DAM bidding, add DSM watch and settlement reconciliation, and measure power-purchase cost and deviation charges against today's baseline.

For executives

What this means for your bank

  1. Treat forecasts and positions as products with SLAs tied to gate closure.
  2. Prepare for market coupling and a single clearing price now.
  3. Watch DSM exposure through the day, not at month-end.
  4. Keep every bid with a trader; let agents draft and reconcile.
Put it to work

How DaasLabs can help

Modernise the desk with our Power Trading & Market Operations service.

Learn more

Meet the trading agent squad.

Learn more

See the market data on the energy overview.

Learn more

Sources

  1. 1
  2. 2

Figures are drawn from the cited public sources. Opinions labelled “DaasLabs point of view” are our own.

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